A Test Between Unemployment Theories Using Matching Data

Melvyn Coles and Barbara Petrongolo

No 3241, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: A new methodology is described which tests between various equilibrium theories of unemployment using matching data. The Paper shows how to correct econometrically for temporal aggregation effects, where the econometrician?s aim is to identify a matching process using data which is recorded monthly, and also shows how to identify different unemployment theories on the data. As implementing this test requires information on the inflow of new vacancies over time, this Paper uses employment agency data for the UK over the period 1985-99. Although the standard random matching approach provides a reasonably good fit, the empirical evidence provides greater support for ?stock-flow? matching. Estimates find that over this period, around 87% of newly laid-off workers are on the long-side of their markets and so match with the flow of new vacancies as those vacancies come onto the market. In particular, these workers? experience average durations of unemployment which exceed 6 months and their matching rates are highly correlated with the inflow of new vacancies. This job queue interpretation of the matching data has important implications for government policy on long term unemployment and optimal UI. It also suggests that previous estimates of the so-called matching function have been misspecified, which potentially explains the large variation in results obtained in that literature.

Keywords: Matching; Unemployment; Hypothesis testing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 J41 J63 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Related works:
Working Paper: A Test Between Unemployment Theories Using Matching Data (2003)
Working Paper: A test between unemployment theories using matching data (2003)
Working Paper: A Test between Unemployment Theories Using Matching Data (2003)
Working Paper: A test between unemployment theories using matching data (2002)
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