Do Voters Vote Sincerely?

Antonio Merlo and Arianna Degan

No 6165, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: In this paper we address the following question: To what extent is the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely testable or falsifiable? We show that using data only on how individuals vote in a single election, the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely is irrefutable, regardless of the number of candidates competing in the election. On the other hand, using data on how the same individuals vote in multiple elections, the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely is potentially falsifiable, and we provide general conditions under which the hypothesis can be tested. We then consider an application of our theoretical framework and assess whether the behaviour of voters is consistent with sincere voting in U.S. national elections in the post-war period. We find that by and large sincere voting can explain virtually all of the individual-level observations on voting behaviour in presidential and congressional U.S. elections in the data.

Keywords: Falsifiability; Spatial models; Testing; Voting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C63 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Do Voters Vote Sincerely? (2007)
Working Paper: Do Voters Vote Sincerely? (2007)
Working Paper: Do Voters Vote Sincerely? (2006)
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