Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity

Antonio Ciccone and Brückner, Markus
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Markus Brueckner

No 6691, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: According to the economic approach to political transitions, negative transitory economic shocks can give rise to a window of opportunity for democratic change. We examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980-2004 period in 41 Sub-Saharan African countries. We find that a 25% drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points. A 5% fall in income due to low rainfall raises the probability of democratization by around 7 percentage points. We also find that rainfall does not affect transitions from democracy to autocracy.

Keywords: Democratization; Transitory economic shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O0 P0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-dev and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (2011)
Working Paper: Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (2010)
Working Paper: Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (2010)
Working Paper: Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (2009)
Working Paper: Rain and the democratic window of opportunity (2009)
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