Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Global Economy

Torsten Persson () and David von Below

No 7024, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of parameters in the model's most important equations are drawn randomly from pre-specified distributions, and present results in the forms of fan charts and histograms. Our results suggest that under a Business-As-Usual scenario, the median increase of global mean temperature in 2105 relative to 1900 will be around 4.5 °C. The 99 percent confidence interval ranges from 3.0 °C to 6.9 °C. Uncertainty about socio-economic drivers of climate change lie behind a non-trivial part of this uncertainty about global warming.

Keywords: Climate-economy models; Global warming; Monte carlo study (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 O13 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Global Economy (2008)
Working Paper: Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Global Economy (2008)
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