Asia?s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030

Kym Anderson and Anna Strutt

No 8950, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and Korea and Taiwan from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, China and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy which compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviours to 2030. Projected impacts on sectoral shares of GDP, ?openness? to trade and the composition and direction of trade are drawn out, followed by effects of the boom in non-farm sectors on agricultural self-sufficiency and real food consumption per capita in Asia and elsewhere. The paper concludes by drawing implications for policies that can address more efficiently Asia?s concerns about food security and rural-urban income disparity than the trade policy measures used by earlier-industrializing Northeast Asia.

Keywords: Global economy-wide model projections; Asian economic growth and structural change; South-south trade; Booming sector economics; Food security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 F13 F15 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cwa and nep-sea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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