Nonlinearities in Sovereign Risk Pricing: The Role of CDS Index Contracts

Richard Portes and Anne-Laure Delatte
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Julien Fouquau

No 9898, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Is the pricing of sovereign risk linear during bearish episodes? Or can initial shocks on economic fundamentals be exacerbated by endogenous factors that create nonlinearities? We test for nonlinearities in the sovereign bond market of European peripheral countries during the debt crisis and explain them. Our estimates based on a panel smooth threshold regression model during January 2006 to September 2012 show four main findings: 1) Peripheral sovereign spreads are subject to significant nonlinear dynamics. 2) The deterioration of market conditions for financial names changes the way investors price risk of the sovereigns. 3) The spreads of European peripheral countries have been priced above their historical values, given fundamentals, because of amplification effects. 4) Two CDS indices on financial names unambiguously stand out as leading drivers of these amplification effects.

Keywords: Cds indices; European sovereign crisis; Panel smooth threshold regression models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 E44 F34 G12 H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Nonlinearities in sovereign risk pricing the role of cds index contracts (2014)
Working Paper: Nonlinearities in sovereign risk pricing the role of cds index contracts (2014)
Working Paper: Nonlinearities in sovereign risk pricing the role of cds index contracts (2014)
Working Paper: Nonlinearities in Sovereign Risk Pricing: The Role of CDS Index Contracts (2014)
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