What Shapes Young Elite Athletes' Perception of Chances in an Environment of Great Uncertainty?

Verena Jung, Sascha Schmidt () and Benno Torgler

CREMA Working Paper Series from Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA)

Abstract: Unrealistic optimism is a commonly observed bias in the perception of chances. In this paper, we examine whether the bias is also present among young elite soccer players (10 to 23 years old) who receive regular objective feedback through external assessments. Utilising a large unique data set of almost 1600 individuals allows us to explore the empirical validation of the ipsative theory of human behaviour. In particular, we analyse how factors such as age or experience, education, peer group performance, and the level of integration into culture exert influence over young elite athletes’ perceived chance of becoming a professional player. Working with a homogeneous dataset of individuals possessing similar characteristics and professional goals allows us to control for and isolate (unobserved) factors that may shape perceptions.

Keywords: Perception of chances; unrealistic optimism; ipsative possibility set; integration effects; soccer (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D03 D81 J15 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-spo
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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