Evaluating the effect of geopolitical risks on the growth rates of emerging countries

Barış Soybilgen (soybilgen@gmail.com), Huseyin Kaya and Dincer Dedeoglu (dincer.dedeoglu@eas.bau.edu.tr)
Additional contact information
Dincer Dedeoglu: Bahcesehir University

Economics Bulletin, 2019, vol. 39, issue 1, 717-725

Abstract: In this study, we analyze the relationship between geopolitical risks and growth using annual panel data from 18 emerging countries for the period from 1986 to 2016. For a robustness check, we use panel data with 5-year intervals. The news-based indices of Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) were used as a proxy for geopolitical risks. Our results show that the effect of geopolitical risks on growth rates is negative and significant. A 10 point increase in the geopolitical risk index causes a 0.2–0.4% decline in the GDP growth rate.

Keywords: Geopolitical Risk; Growth; Emerging Markets; Panel Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O1 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-03-28
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2019/Volume39/EB-19-V39-I1-P71.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-18-00785

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economics Bulletin from AccessEcon
Bibliographic data for series maintained by John P. Conley (j.p.conley@vanderbilt.edu).