Credit spreads and the links between the financial and real sectors in a small open economy: the case of the Czech Republic

Tomas Konecny and Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Oxana Babecká-Kucharčuková

No 1730, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: Various approaches have been employed to explore the possibility of non-linear feedback between the real and financial sector. The present study focuses on the impact of real shocks on selected financial sector indicators, and the responses of the real economy to impulses emanating from the financial sector. We estimate the threshold Bayesian VAR with block restrictions and the credit spread as a threshold variable using the example of the Czech Republic. We find that while there is no evidence of asymmetric effects across positive and negative shocks, the responses of the financial sector to real shocks tend to differ in low and high credit spread regimes. Responses in the opposite direction (i.e. from the financial sector to the real economy) are procyclical and similar irrespective of regime. A positive shock to credit and a negative shock to the NPL increase industrial production over the entire time horizon. The direct impact of foreign factors on lending seems to be rather limited. JEL Classification: E51, C15, C32

Keywords: credit; non-linearities; small open economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac, nep-opm and nep-tra
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Journal Article: Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141730

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