A multi-agent system to predict the outcome of a two-round election

D.Y. Charcon and L.H.A. Monteiro

Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2020, vol. 386, issue C

Abstract: Here, an agent-based model is developed to forecast the outcome of a three-party election in a two-round voting system. The vote of each agent is determined from four variables related to economic indicators, quality of public services, ethical conduct of the current administration, and political profile of the voting population. In addition, each agent can be influenced by the opinion of the nearest neighbors. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate how these variables affect the elected candidate. The proposed model is also used to reproduce the presidential elections held in Brazil in 2010 and in Uruguay in 2019.

Keywords: Multi-agent system; Opinion dynamics; Social network; Voting behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:386:y:2020:i:c:s0096300320304409

DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2020.125481

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