Modified SEIR epidemic model including asymptomatic and hospitalized cases with correct demographic evolution

Antonio Rafael Selva Castañeda, Erick Eduardo Ramirez-Torres, Luis Eugenio Valdés-García, Hilda María Morandeira-Padrón, Diana Sedal Yanez, Juan I. Montijano and Luis Enrique Bergues Cabrales

Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2023, vol. 456, issue C

Abstract: The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the time behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients in an epidemic, taking into account the effect of the demographic evolution. Unlike most of the recent studies where a constant ratio of new individuals is considered, we consider a more correct assumption that the growth ratio is proportional to the total population, following a Logistic law, as is usual in population growth studies for humans and animals. An exhaustive theoretical study is carried out and the basic reproduction number R0 is computed from the model equations. It is proved that if R0<1 then the disease-free manifold is globally asymptotically stable, that is, the epidemics remits. Global and local stability of the equilibrium points is also studied. Numerical simulations are used to show the agreement between numerical results and theoretical properties. The model is fitted to experimental data corresponding to the pandemic evolution of COVID-19 in the Republic of Cuba, showing a proper behaviour of infected cases which let us think that can provide a correct estimation of asymptomatic cases. In conclusion, the model seems to be an adequate tool for the study and control of infectious diseases.

Keywords: Epidemics models; COVID-19; Mathematical modelling; Symptomatic cases; Asymptomatic cases; Hospitalized cases (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:456:y:2023:i:c:s0096300323002916

DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2023.128122

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