Estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas
Mike Tsionas,
Marwan Izzeldin and
Lorenzo Trapani
European Economic Review, 2022, vol. 141, issue C
Abstract:
This paper provides a simple, yet reliable, alternative to the (Bayesian) estimation of large multivariate VARs with time variation in the conditional mean equations and/or in the covariance structure. The original multivariate, n-dimensional model is treated as a set of n univariate estimation problems, and cross-dependence is handled through the use of a copula. This makes it possible to run the estimation of each univariate equation in parallel. Thus, only univariate distribution functions are needed when estimating the individual equations, which are often available in closed form, and easy to handle with MCMC (or other techniques). Thereafter, the individual posteriors are combined with the copula, so obtaining a joint posterior which can be easily resampled. We illustrate our approach using various examples of large time-varying parameter VARs with 129 and even 215 macroeconomic variables.
Keywords: Vector AutoRegression; Time-varying parameters; Heteroskedasticity; Copulas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:141:y:2022:i:c:s0014292121002439
DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103952
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