Conservative forecasting with the damped trend

Everette S. Gardner

Journal of Business Research, 2015, vol. 68, issue 8, 1739-1741

Abstract: The “Golden Rule” checklist by Armstrong, Green, and Graefe, in this issue (referred to as AGG below), is a systematic procedure for implementing conservative forecasting principles, and it should help close the long-standing gap between theory and practice. The checklist is both a practical tool and an empirical research agenda. Trend damping is an important part of the checklist, and AGG rely on subjective judgment about when and how damping should be done. I recommend a more objective approach based on the damped trend method of exponential smoothing, which has a long record of success in empirical research.

Keywords: Forecasting; Time series; Extrapolation; Exponential smoothing; Damped trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:68:y:2015:i:8:p:1739-1741

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.033

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