Virus dynamics with behavioral responses

Krishna Dasaratha

Journal of Economic Theory, 2023, vol. 214, issue C

Abstract: Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from economic activity, but activity involves interactions with potentially infected individuals. The main focus is a theoretical analysis of contagion dynamics and behavioral responses to changes in risk. We obtain a simple condition for when public-health interventions or variants of a disease will have paradoxical effects on infection rates due to risk compensation. Behavioral responses are most likely to undermine public-health interventions near the peak of severe diseases.

Keywords: Epidemics; Social distancing; Risk compensation; SIR; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:214:y:2023:i:c:s0022053123001357

DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2023.105739

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