Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium

Bart Cockx, Michael Lechner and Joost Bollens

Labour Economics, 2023, vol. 80, issue C

Abstract: Based on administrative data on unemployed in Belgium, we estimate the labour market effects of three training programmes at various aggregation levels using Modified Causal Forests, a causal machine learning estimator. While all programmes have positive effects after the lock-in period, we find substantial heterogeneity in effectiveness across programmes and unemployed. Simulations show that “black-box” reassignment rules that respect capacity constraints on average, increase, respectively decrease, the time spent in employment, respectively unemployment, by more than one month within 30 months of programme start. A shallow policy tree delivers a simple rule that realizes about 85% of this gain.

Keywords: Policy evaluation; Active labour market policy; Causal machine learning; Modified causal forest; Conditional average treatment effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 J68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2022)
Working Paper: Priority of Unemployed Immigrants? A Causal Machine Learning Evaluation of Training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to Unemployed Immigrants? A Causal Machine Learning Evaluation of Training in Belgium (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:labeco:v:80:y:2023:i:c:s0927537122001968

DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102306

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