Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion

Flavia Cavallini

Labour Economics, 2024, vol. 87, issue C

Abstract: I analyze the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio, combining population statistics and administrative data on induced abortions performed in Italy between 2004 and 2016. Using a shift-share instrument measuring labor demand, I exploit demand-driven shocks to unemployment. The findings indicate that both childbearing and abortions behave pro-cyclically, thus suggesting that changes in fertility rates arise not just from changes in planned pregnancy but also from a higher incidence of abortions. These effects are driven by women above 25 years old, and are particularly large in the 35–49 age group, while younger women are largely unaffected.

Keywords: Fertility choice; Abortion ratio; Local economic conditions; Unemployment rate; Shift-share (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H75 J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:labeco:v:87:y:2024:i:c:s0927537123001677

DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102492

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