A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys

Olivier Armantier, Argia Sbordone, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw and John Williams

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2022, vol. 129, issue S, S82-S101

Abstract: We propose a new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using “strategic surveys.” Namely, we measure households’ revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. This approach has a causal interpretation and maps directly into policy makers concerns. We implement the method in the summer of 2019 and the spring-summer of 2021 when the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations was questioned. We find that the risk of un-anchoring was reasonably low in both periods, and that long-run inflation expectations were essentially as well anchored in August 2021 as in July 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Keywords: Inflation; Expectations; Anchoring; Surveys; Experiments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:129:y:2022:i:s:p:s82-s101

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.05.002

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