The optimal time to evacuate: A behavioral dynamic model on Louisiana resident data

Nayel Urena Serulle and Cinzia Cirillo

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2017, vol. 106, issue C, 447-463

Abstract: Understanding what affects the decision process leading to evacuation of a population at risk from the threat of a disaster is of upmost importance to successfully implement emergency planning policies. Literature on this is broad; however, the vast majority of behavioral models is limited to conventional structures, such as aggregate participation rate models or disaggregate multinomial logit models. This research introduces a dynamic discrete choice model that takes into account the threat's characteristics and the population's expectation of them. The proposed framework is estimated using Stated Preference (SP) evacuation data collected from Louisiana residents. The results indicate that the proposed dynamic discrete choice model outperforms sequential logit, excels in incorporating demographic information of respondents, a key input in policy evaluation, and yields significantly more accurate predictions of the decision and timing to evacuate.

Keywords: Emergency; Evacuation; Dynamic model; Optimal time; Expected utility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261515302253
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transb:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:447-463

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2017.06.004

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological is currently edited by Fred Mannering

More articles in Transportation Research Part B: Methodological from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().