Sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model

Chao Yang, Anthony Chen, Xiangdong Xu and S.C. Wong

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2013, vol. 57, issue C, 225-244

Abstract: Travel demand forecasting is subject to great uncertainties. A systematic uncertainty analysis can provide insights into the level of confidence on the model outputs, and also identify critical sources of uncertainty for enhancing the robustness of the travel demand model. In this paper, we develop a systematic framework for quantitative uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model (CTDM) using the analytical sensitivity-based method. The CTDM overcomes limitations of the sequential four-step procedure since it is based on a single unifying rationale. The analytical sensitivity-based method requires less computational effort than the sampling-based method. Meanwhile, the uncertainties stemming from inputs and parameters can be treated separately so that the individual and collective effects of uncertainty on the outputs can be clearly assessed and quantified. Numerical examples are finally used to demonstrate the proposed sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis method for the CTDM.

Keywords: Uncertainty analysis; Sensitivity analysis; Nonlinear program; Combined travel demand model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261513001215
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transb:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:225-244

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2013.07.006

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological is currently edited by Fred Mannering

More articles in Transportation Research Part B: Methodological from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().