On the transmission channels for the resource curse

Kerim Arin, Elias Braunfels and Christina Zenker

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Recent literature shows that oil revenues may have a positive effect on long-run economic growth. However, there is no clear evidence for such an effect in the medium-run, suggesting the existence of a so-called resource-curse in the medium-run. Taking this as a starting point, we investigate all the transmission channels through which oil revenues can retard growth in the medium-run within a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) framework. Our results show that oil revenues have indeed a negative effect on the medium-run economic growth, which is transmitted through medium-term trends in oil prices and (poor) institutional quality.

Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2019-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-ene and nep-gro
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-67

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