The Risk Assessment Method in Prognostic Models of Production Systems Management with Account of the Time Factor

Leonid Mylnikov and Martin Kuetz

European Research Studies Journal, 2017, vol. XX, issue 3A, 291-310

Abstract: The possibility of planning risks assessment and the setting of the planning horizon are analysed with account of the time factor basing. A risk metrics approach is used, with risks estimated as a time function given in tabular form for the purposes of master production.Dependence of the integrated planning risks on the accuracy of forecasts used is proved and a time point is identified after which the risk assessment value increases sharply.The study enables to obtain the values of planning risks integral assessment in management problems using forecast data for groups of indicators and parameters involved in decision-making.

Keywords: risk assessment method; risk assessment; production system; production system management; time factor; planning risks assessment; forecast models; constraint optimisation problems; risk metrics approach; production scheduling; historical data; production volume; integrated planning risks; risk assessment value; planning risks integral assessment. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ers:journl:v:xx:y:2017:i:3a:p:291-310

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