China's External Surplus: Simulations with a Global Macroeconomic Model

Lukas Vogel

No 430, European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 from Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission

Abstract: The paper analyses China's external position in a multi-region macroeconomic model of the world economy. The model includes a portfolio structure and Forex intervention to proxy net/gross and government/non-government foreign asset positions, capital controls and exchange rate management in China. The selected set of transition and globalisation shocks replicates China's external position well, suggesting that it reflects capital exports driven by shifts in domestic saving supply, rather than shifts in foreign saving demand. The simulations also highlight the importance of effective capital controls for the viability of China's exchange rate management. Finally, the analysis suggests that enhanced flexibility of the RMB exchange rate could reduce China's net creditor position.

JEL-codes: F30 F40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2010-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ifn, nep-opm and nep-tra
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:euf:ecopap:0430

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