New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment

Zinzhu Chen, Prakash Kannan (), Prakash Loungani and Bharat Trehan ()

No 2011-17, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: We provide cross-country evidence on the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors in explaining unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cyclical factors?real GDP changes (?Okun?s Law?), monetary and fiscal policies, and the uncertainty effects emphasized by Bloom (2009). Structural factors, which we measure using the dispersion of industry-level stock returns, account for the remaining 25 percent. For U.S. long-term unemployment the split between cyclical and structural factors is closer to 60-40, including during the Great Recession.

Keywords: Unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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Related works:
Journal Article: New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment (2012)
Working Paper: New Evidenceon Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment (2011)
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