A Tale of Two Narratives: a presentation at St. Louis Gateway Chapter of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), July 12, 2016

James Bullard

No 272, Speech from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: While addressing business economists during a meeting in St. Louis, President James Bullard discussed how the St. Louis Fed?s new approach to near-term U.S. macroeconomic and monetary policy projections differs from the old approach. He noted the previous narrative was based on the idea that the economy is converging to a single, long-run steady state. Under the new narrative, he said that the economy instead may visit a set of possible regimes, or states. Bullard said that the projected policy rate path is the main difference in the new approach: The policy rate under the old narrative would likely rise over the forecast horizon to be consistent with its steady state value, whereas the policy rate under the new narrative would likely remain essentially flat over the forecast horizon to remain consistent with the current regime.

Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2016-07-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/Files/PDFs/Bull ... uis-12-July-2016.pdf Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedlps:272

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
subscribe@stls.frb.org

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Speech from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Scott St. Louis (scott.stlouis@stls.frb.org).