Three Questions for U.S. Monetary Policy: a presentation at Truman State University, Kirksville, Mo. September 27, 2017

James Bullard

No 291, Speech from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard addressed questions related to real GDP growth in the second half of 2017, inflation surprising to the downside in the first half of 2017 and the impact of strong U.S. labor-market performance on inflation going forward. During a presentation at Truman State University in Kirksville, Mo., he said recent data indicate that U.S. real GDP growth remains consistent with the 2 percent growth ?regime? of recent years, adding that growth in the second half of 2017 will probably not move meaningfully above 2 percent. He noted that effects from the hurricanes will add uncertainty to data interpretation in the coming months. On inflation, he said that the downside surprise is unlikely to reverse itself in the second half of 2017. He also said that continued strong performance of labor markets is unlikely to drive inflation meaningfully higher. In terms of monetary policy, he concluded that the current level of the federal funds rate target ?is appropriate given current macroeconomic data.?

Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2017-09-27
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