Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis

Amy Guisinger, Laura Jackson Young and Michael Owyang

No 2022-015, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: We use a time-varying panel unobserved components model to estimate unemployment gaps disaggregated by age and gender. Recessions before COVID affected men's labor market outcomes more than women's; however, the reverse was true for the COVID recession, with effects amplified for younger workers. The aggregate Phillips curve flattens over time and hysteresis is countercyclical for all groups. We find heterogeneity in both the Phillips curve and hysteresis coefficients, with wages responding more to workers with an outside option (high school- and retirement-age) and larger effects of hysteresis for younger workers.

Keywords: time varying parameters; natural rate of unemployment; hysteresis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2022-07-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab
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Journal Article: Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis (2024)
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DOI: 10.20955/wp.2022.015

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