Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems

Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke, Onyinye Prince Choko, Stella Nwawulu Chiemela, Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie, Anthonia Ifeyinwa Achike and Adedapo Ayo Aiyeloja
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Laura Schmitt Olabisi: Department of Community Sustainability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke: Department of Agriculture (Agricultural Economics and Extension Programme), Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike, Ebonyi State, Ikwo 482131, Nigeria
Onyinye Prince Choko: Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt 500272, Nigeria
Stella Nwawulu Chiemela: Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka 410001, Nigeria
Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie: Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
Anthonia Ifeyinwa Achike: Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka 410001, Nigeria
Adedapo Ayo Aiyeloja: Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt 500272, Nigeria

Agriculture, 2020, vol. 10, issue 7, 1-9

Abstract: Effective climate adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture will require coordination across multiple scales of governance. Decision-makers from local to national scales will be tasked with planning under conditions of high uncertainty, often with minimal data. Participatory scenario planning is a method for devising adaptation strategies under high uncertainty, and we hypothesized that it could also be used for identifying systemic, inclusive, and transformative adaptation options at the community scale, and for highlighting opportunities for cross-scalar collaboration. We conducted scenario exercises with two communities in southeastern Nigeria that have experienced increasing flooding and other challenges linked to climate variability. Both communities identified drivers of change that intersect with climate, as well as community-scale actions that would improve adaptation to a range of future scenarios. We found evidence that scenario exercises can stimulate communities to develop transformative approaches to climate adaptation that seek to reduce climate risk by creating new systems and processes. We also found that community-identified priorities for strategic action highlight how larger-scale interventions could coordinate with communities to adapt more effectively. Participatory scenario planning is therefore a potentially important tool for adaptation planning in regions in which future conditions are highly uncertain.

Keywords: scenarios; climate change; adaptation; community; governance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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