Determinants of Farmers’ Confidence in Agricultural Production Recovery during the Early Phases of the COVID-19 Pandemic in China

Yanqi Xie, Apurbo Sarkar, Md. Shakhawat Hossain, Ahmed Khairul Hasan and Xianli Xia
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Yanqi Xie: College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
Apurbo Sarkar: College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
Md. Shakhawat Hossain: College of Agronomy, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Xianyang 712100, China
Ahmed Khairul Hasan: Department of Agronomy, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
Xianli Xia: College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China

Agriculture, 2021, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-22

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted the agricultural supply chain, export of agricultural products, and overall food security. However, minimal exploration has been attempted of farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, this study intends to explore the determinants of farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, we analyzed the relationship between risk expectation and social support on the farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery by using the ordered probit model. Cross-sectional survey data were collected from February to March 2020 from 458 farm households in the 7 provinces of China to produce the findings. We found that the risk expectation of farmers had a significant negative impact on farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery. Social support seemingly had a significant positive impact on the farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery, and could play a supportive role in moderating the relationship between risk expectation and farmers’ confidence in recovery. However, social support alleviates the adverse effect of risk expectation on farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery to a certain extent. In addition, there were intergenerational differences in the effects of risk expectation and social support on farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery. These results imply that policies establishing the risk early warning mechanisms for agricultural production and strengthening the social support from governments and financial institutions are likely to significantly impact agricultural development in the post-COVID-19 era. The formal and informal risk minimization mechanisms should extend their support to vulnerable sectors such as agribusiness.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; farmers’ confidence in recovery; risk expectation; social support; intergenerational difference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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