Designing Just Transition Pathways: A Methodological Framework to Estimate the Impact of Future Scenarios on Employment in the French Dairy Sector

Pierre-Marie Aubert, Baptiste Gardin, Élise Huber, Michele Schiavo and Christophe Alliot
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Pierre-Marie Aubert: Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri), 41 rue du Four, 75007 Paris, France
Baptiste Gardin: Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri), 41 rue du Four, 75007 Paris, France
Élise Huber: Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri), 41 rue du Four, 75007 Paris, France
Michele Schiavo: Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri), 41 rue du Four, 75007 Paris, France
Christophe Alliot: Bureau d’Analyse Sociétale Pour une Information Citoyenne (BASIC), 38 rue Saint Sabin, 75011 Paris, France

Agriculture, 2021, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-19

Abstract: This paper proposes an innovative framework to describe sustainable transitions of food systems while considering simultaneously socio-economic and environmental issues, in a just transition perspective. This framework (i) describes the structural changes needed for a sustainable transition in food systems; (ii) assess their effects on employment at the farm and processing industry level; (iii) detect the political levers needed to make this transition a just one—that is, preserving jobs and livelihoods for communities. Using the decarbonation pathway for the agricultural sector issued from the French National Low-Carbon Strategy as reference, we developed two scenarios for the French dairy sector which have the same level of climate ambitious, but a different approach to reach the target. Aiming exclusively to achieve a greenhouse gases reduction, the first scenario relies only on supply side measures. This scenario has a negative impact in terms of employment loss at the farm level and in the agri-food sector. In contrast, a multifunctional scenario considering simultaneously climate, biodiversity, health, and employment issues, and playing with policy measures targeting supply, demand and market organisation can maintain jobs in the farm and agri-food sector, contributes to restore the agro-biodiversity and develops food products compatible with healthy nutritional guidelines.

Keywords: just transition; dairy value chain; decarbonization; agri-food sector; modelling framework; farm jobs; agri-food jobs; French national low-carbon strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jagris:v:11:y:2021:i:11:p:1119-:d:675669

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