Forecasting Global Developments and Challenges in Olive Oil Supply and Demand: A Delphi Survey from Spain

Samir Mili and Maria Bouhaddane
Additional contact information
Samir Mili: Institute of Economics, Geography and Demography (IEGD), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Albasanz 26, 28037 Madrid, Spain
Maria Bouhaddane: VetAgro Sup, Agronomic Campus of Clermont-Ferrand, 89 Avenue de l’Europe, 63370 Lempdes, France

Agriculture, 2021, vol. 11, issue 3, 1-25

Abstract: Forecasting future supply and demand is a topical subject in the olive oil sector due to its relevance for decision making and the lack of comprehensive and consensual estimates at the global level. This study aims at overcoming this gap in research by providing a foresight of global supply and demand for olive oil for the years to come. We use the Delphi technique to estimate the expected annual growth rates in the olive oil production and consumption worldwide as well as their likely impact on Spanish exports by 2025. Another key objective of the study is to elicit expert judgements on the factors that are likely to shape the predicted changes as well as the international challenges ahead. Results suggest substantial future increases in production in new-producing countries, in parallel with a slower growth in the European traditional suppliers whose focus will increasingly be placed on quality and sustainability rather than quantity. In addition, a significant growth in the world’s demand for olive oil is expected in non-traditional markets, which will be driven by greater awareness of the positive health and sustainability attributes of this product, jointly with the changes in lifestyles and rising incomes of several consumer segments. These emerging markets offer promising prospects for the international expansion of olive oil companies. Future international challenges facing the olive oil industry include new market entry, worldwide product promotion, quality standards’ harmonization, enacting trade facilitation schemes, and dealing with the COVID-19 impacts. Findings improve market predictability and transparency, and ultimately support decision-making and strategic planning in the olive oil sector.

Keywords: judgmental forecasting; Delphi technique; supply; demand; global market; olive oil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/11/3/191/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/11/3/191/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jagris:v:11:y:2021:i:3:p:191-:d:506601

Access Statistics for this article

Agriculture is currently edited by Ms. Leda Xuan

More articles in Agriculture from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().