Future Scenarios for Viticultural Suitability under Conditions of Global Climate Change in Extremadura, Southwestern Spain

Francisco J. Moral (), Cristina Aguirado, Virginia Alberdi, Abelardo García-Martín, Luis L. Paniagua and Francisco J. Rebollo
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Francisco J. Moral: Departamento de Expresión Gráfica, Escuela de Ingenierías Industriales, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. de Elvas, s/n, 06006 Badajoz, Spain
Cristina Aguirado: Departamento de Expresión Gráfica, Escuela de Ingenierías Industriales, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. de Elvas, s/n, 06006 Badajoz, Spain
Virginia Alberdi: Departamento de Expresión Gráfica, Escuela de Ingenierías Industriales, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. de Elvas, s/n, 06006 Badajoz, Spain
Abelardo García-Martín: Departamento de Ingeniería del Medio Agronómico y Forestal, Escuela de Ingenierías Agrarias, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. Adolfo Suárez, s/n, 06007 Badajoz, Spain
Luis L. Paniagua: Departamento de Ingeniería del Medio Agronómico y Forestal, Escuela de Ingenierías Agrarias, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. Adolfo Suárez, s/n, 06007 Badajoz, Spain
Francisco J. Rebollo: Departamento de Expresión Gráfica, Escuela de Ingenierías Agrarias, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. Adolfo Suárez, s/n, 06007 Badajoz, Spain

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 11, 1-17

Abstract: Weather condition is the main factor affecting winegrape production. Therefore, it is necessary to study the expected consequences of climate change on vineyards to anticipate adaptation strategies. To analyse how viticulture in Extremadura, in southwestern Spain, could be affected by warming, four temperature-based indices describing the suitability for grape production were computed for a reference period (1971–2005) and three future periods (2006–2035, 2036–2065, and 2066–2095). Projections were computed using a set of 10 global climate model (GCM) and regional climate model (RCM) combinations under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. Results showed that most of the Extremaduran region will remain suitable for winegrape production during the period 2006–2035. Later, for the mid-century, 2036–2065, depending on the considered index and the scenario, between 65% and 92% of the total area of Extremadura will be too hot for viticulture; for the end of the century, 2066–2095, between 80% and 98% of the region will be too hot. However, under the RCP 4.5 scenario, a few zones could be suitable for winegrape production but will require the use of new varieties and techniques to resist heat and drought stress.

Keywords: bioclimatic indices; climate projections; extremadura; viticulture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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