Facilitating Resilience during an African Swine Fever Outbreak in the Austrian Pork Supply Chain through Hybrid Simulation Modelling

Yvonne Kummer, Christian Fikar, Johanna Burtscher, Martina Strobl, Reinhard Fuchs, Konrad J. Domig and Patrick Hirsch
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Yvonne Kummer: Institute of Production and Logistics, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Feistmantelstraße 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria
Christian Fikar: Faculty VII for Life Sciences: Food, Nutrition and Health, University of Bayreuth, Fritz-Hornschuch-Strasse 13, 95326 Kulmbach, Germany
Johanna Burtscher: Institute of Food Science, Department of Food Science and Technology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Muthgasse 18, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Martina Strobl: Austrian Competence Centre for Feed and Food Quality, Safety and Innovation (FFoQSI GmbH), Technopark 1C, 3430 Tulln, Austria
Reinhard Fuchs: Department for Data, Statistics and Risk Assessment, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Zinzendorfgasse 27, 8010 Graz, Austria
Konrad J. Domig: Institute of Food Science, Department of Food Science and Technology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Muthgasse 18, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Patrick Hirsch: Institute of Production and Logistics, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Feistmantelstraße 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 3, 1-17

Abstract: This study aimed to simulate the impact of an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Austria. ASF is one of the most significant and critical diseases for the global domestic pig population. Hence, the authors evaluated control strategies and identified bottlenecks during an ASF outbreak. A hybrid approach was selected, including discrete-event and agent-based simulation. An extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model (within a pig farm) and a standard SEIR model (between pig farms) were used to simulate the chain of infection. A total of 576 scenarios with several parameter variations were calculated to identify the influence of external factors on key performance indicators. The main results show a comparison between two control strategies anchored in law: a standard strategy (SS) and a preventive culling strategy (SC). The calculated scenarios show a difference between these strategies and indicate that with SC during an outbreak, fewer farms would be infected, and fewer pigs would be culled. Furthermore, specific geographical areas were identified, which—due to their density of pigs and farms—would be severely affected in case of an ASF outbreak. The analysis of bottlenecks in rendering plants (RPs) showed an increase in the number of days RPs were overutilized as the transmission rate increased. In addition, SS caused more days of overutilized RPs than SC.

Keywords: African swine fever; simulation; pork production; resilience; control strategy; decision support system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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