Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield of Winter Wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) and Maize ( Zea mays ) and Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Northern China

Chuang Liu, Huiyi Yang, Kate Gongadze, Paul Harris, Mingbin Huang and Lianhai Wu
Additional contact information
Chuang Liu: Key Laboratory of Nutrient Cycling Resources and Environment of Anhui, Institute of Soil and Fertilizer, Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hefei 230001, China
Huiyi Yang: Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, UK
Kate Gongadze: Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, UK
Paul Harris: Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, UK
Mingbin Huang: State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
Lianhai Wu: Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, UK

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 5, 1-12

Abstract: Agricultural system models provide an effective tool for forecasting crop productivity and nutrient budgets under future climate change. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on crop failure, grain yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) for both winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) and maize ( Zea mays L.) in northern China, using the SPACSYS model. The model was calibrated and validated with datasets from 20-year long-term experiments (1985–2004) for the Loess plateau, and then used to forecast production (2020–2049) under six sharing social-economic pathway climate scenarios for both wheat and maize crops with irrigation. Results suggested that warmer climatic scenarios might be favourable for reducing the crop failure rate and increasing the grain yield for winter wheat, while the same climatic scenarios were unfavourable for maize production in the region. Furthermore, future SOC stocks in the topsoil layer (0–30 cm) could increase but in the subsoil layer (30–100 cm) could decrease, regardless of the chosen crop.

Keywords: SPACSYS; crop failure; soil organic carbon; modelling; Loess (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/5/614/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/5/614/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:5:p:614-:d:802808

Access Statistics for this article

Agriculture is currently edited by Ms. Leda Xuan

More articles in Agriculture from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().