Responses of Soybean Water Supply and Requirement to Future Climate Conditions in Heilongjiang Province

Na Li, Tangzhe Nie, Yi Tang, Dehao Lu, Tianyi Wang, Zhongxue Zhang, Peng Chen, Tiecheng Li, Linghui Meng, Yang Jiao and Kaiwen Cheng
Additional contact information
Na Li: School of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China
Tangzhe Nie: School of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China
Yi Tang: School of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China
Dehao Lu: School of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China
Tianyi Wang: School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
Zhongxue Zhang: Key Laboratory of Efficient Use of Agricultural Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
Peng Chen: College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Tiecheng Li: Key Laboratory of Efficient Use of Agricultural Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
Linghui Meng: School of Architecture and Engineering, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China
Yang Jiao: School of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China
Kaiwen Cheng: School of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-21

Abstract: Understanding future changes in water supply and requirement under climate change is of great significance for long-term water resource management and agricultural planning. In this study, daily minimum temperature ( T min ), maximum temperature ( T max ), solar radiation ( Rad ), and precipitation for 26 meteorological stations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of MIRCO5 for the future period 2021–2080 were downscaled by the LARS-WG model, daily average relative humidity ( RH ) was estimated using the method recommended by FAO-56, and reference crop evapotranspiration ( ET 0 ), crop water requirement ( ET c ), irrigation water requirement ( I r ), effective precipitation ( P e ), and coupling degree of ET c and P e ( CD ) for soybean during the growth period were calculated by the CROPWAT model in Heilongjiang Province, China. The spatial and temporal distribution of these variables and meteorological factors were analyzed, and the response of soybean water supply and requirement to climate change was explored. The result showed that the average T min , T max , and Rad under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increased by 0.2656 and 0.5368 °C, 0.3509 and 0.5897 °C, and 0.0830 and 0.0465 MJ/m², respectively, while the average RH decreased by 0.0920% and 0.0870% per decade from 2021 to 2080. The annual average ET 0 , ET c , P e , and I r under RCP4.5 for 2021–2080 were 542.89, 414.35, 354.10, and 102.44 mm, respectively, and they increased by 1.92%, 1.64%, 2.33%, and −2.12% under the RCP8.5, respectively. The ranges of CD under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were 0.66–0.95 and 0.66–0.96, respectively, with an average value of 0.84 for 2021–2080. Spatially, the CD showed a general trend of increasing first and then decreasing from west to east. In addition, ET 0 , ET c , and P e increased by 9.55, 7.16, and 8.77 mm per decade, respectively, under RCP8.5, while I r decreased by 0.65 mm per decade. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, ET c , P e , and I r showed an overall increasing trend from 2021 to 2080. This study provides a basis for water resources management policy in Heilongjiang Province, China.

Keywords: climate change; soybean; CROPWAT; reference crop evapotranspiration ( ET 0 ); crop water requirement ( ET c ); irrigation water requirement ( I r ) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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