Perspectives on Effective Long-Term Management of Carbon Stocks in Chernozem under Future Climate Conditions

Ilshat Husniev, Vladimir Romanenkov, Stanislav Siptits, Vera Pavlova, Sergey Pasko, Olga Yakimenko and Pavel Krasilnikov ()
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Ilshat Husniev: Faculty of Soil Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia
Vladimir Romanenkov: Faculty of Soil Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia
Stanislav Siptits: A. Nikonov All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Issues and Informatics, 105064 Moscow, Russia
Vera Pavlova: National Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology, 249030 Obninsk, Russia
Sergey Pasko: Federal Rostov Agricultural Research Center, Rassvet settlement, Rostov region, 346735, Russia
Olga Yakimenko: Faculty of Soil Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia
Pavel Krasilnikov: Faculty of Soil Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia

Agriculture, 2023, vol. 13, issue 10, 1-19

Abstract: Arable Chernozems with high SOC contents have the potential to be significant sources of GHGs, and climate change is likely to increase SOC losses, making the issue of carbon sequestration in this region even more important. The prospect of maintaining SOC stock or increasing it by 4‰ annually under planned management practice modifications for the period up to 2090 was evaluated using a long-term experiment on Haplic Chernozem in the Rostov Region, Russia. In this study, we used the RothC model to evaluate SOC dynamics for three treatments with mineral and organic fertilization under two adaptation scenarios vs. business-as-usual scenarios, as well as under two climate change scenarios. The correction of crop rotation and the application of organic fertilizers at high rates are essential tools for maintaining and increasing SOC stocks. These methods can maintain SOC stock at the level of 84–87 Mg∙ha −1 until the middle of the 21st century, as the first half of the century is considered to be the most promising period for the introduction of adaptation measures for the additional accumulation of SOC on Chernozems. Part of the additional accumulated SOC is expected to be lost before 2090.

Keywords: soil organic matter; greenhouse gases; climatic change scenarios; adaptation; long-term experiment; black fallow (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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