Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security

Mariusz Hamulczuk, Karolina Pawlak (), Joanna Stefańczyk and Jarosław Gołębiewski
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Mariusz Hamulczuk: Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
Karolina Pawlak: Faculty of Economics, Poznan University of Life Sciences, 60-637 Poznan, Poland
Joanna Stefańczyk: Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
Jarosław Gołębiewski: Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland

Agriculture, 2023, vol. 13, issue 11, 1-17

Abstract: The Russian–Ukrainian conflict has led to the disruption of global supply chains, thus posing a threat to food security. The study aimed to assess the short-term impact of the conflict on food supply and global retail food prices resulting from the disruption of agri-food exports from Ukraine after the war outbreak. To assess the impact of the conflict on retail prices worldwide, the actual food price level during the conflict period was compared with the counterfactual values obtained from the forecasting models. The research points to a significant decline in Ukraine’s commodity exports at the beginning of the conflict leading to a supply gap for cereals in particular, affecting global access to staple foods. As a result, global food commodity prices rose sharply, however, the upsurge was short-lived, and as early as July 2022 price indices returned to their pre-war levels. On the other hand, in most regions worldwide the gradual and persistent increase in retail food prices was observed after the war outbreak. The study also found strong regional differentiation in the response of retail food prices to the conflict due to various specific factors that exacerbated or mitigated the impact of the war.

Keywords: agri-food prices; international trade; the Russia–Ukraine war; food security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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