Effects of Future Climate Change on Spring Maize Yield and Water Use Efficiency under Film Mulching with Different Materials in the LOESS Plateau Region of China

Bingfan Wang, Zhaoyang Li, Zihan Liu, Jinwen Pang, Peng Zhang and Zhikuan Jia ()
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Bingfan Wang: Key Laboratory of Crop Physio-Ecology and Tillage Science in the Northwestern Loess Plateau, Ministry of Agriculture, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Xianyang 712100, China
Zhaoyang Li: Key Laboratory of Crop Physio-Ecology and Tillage Science in the Northwestern Loess Plateau, Ministry of Agriculture, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Xianyang 712100, China
Zihan Liu: Key Laboratory of Crop Physio-Ecology and Tillage Science in the Northwestern Loess Plateau, Ministry of Agriculture, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Xianyang 712100, China
Jinwen Pang: Key Laboratory of Crop Physio-Ecology and Tillage Science in the Northwestern Loess Plateau, Ministry of Agriculture, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Xianyang 712100, China
Peng Zhang: Key Laboratory of Crop Physio-Ecology and Tillage Science in the Northwestern Loess Plateau, Ministry of Agriculture, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Xianyang 712100, China
Zhikuan Jia: Key Laboratory of Crop Physio-Ecology and Tillage Science in the Northwestern Loess Plateau, Ministry of Agriculture, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Xianyang 712100, China

Agriculture, 2023, vol. 13, issue 6, 1-19

Abstract: Background: Traditional polyethylene film mulching is widely used in the Loess Plateau region of China to improve crop yields. However, whether long-term polyethylene film mulching can continue to ensure crop yield under future climate change conditions is questionable. First, we conducted a four-year field experiment to calibrate and validate the biogeochemical DeNitrification–DeComposition (DNDC) model. Then, based on the calibrated and validated model, we evaluated the spring maize yield and water use efficiency under different film mulching methods (no mulching, traditional polyethylene film mulching, and biodegradable film mulching) in the Loess Plateau region. Results: The temperature and rainfall in the Loess Plateau region are predicted to increase in the future (2021–2100) under four scenarios due to higher CO 2 concentrations. Through 252 simulation results, we found that future climate change will have positive impacts under no mulching, traditional polyethylene film mulching, and degradable film mulching conditions. The yield increase will be greater with no mulching, but in the future, film mulching will continue to reduce crop yields. Additionally, the crop yield reduction under traditional polyethylene film mulching is greater. A sensitivity analysis indicated that rainfall will have a major effect on yield, and polyethylene film mulching will reduce the sensitivity of the yield to rainfall. As the rainfall increases, the differences between the yield and water use efficiency under ordinary plastic film and degradable film will become smaller. In the later period with a warmer and wetter climate under the SSP585 scenario, the water use efficiency will be higher under degradable film than traditional polyethylene film mulching. Conclusion: It can be seen that degradable film is more adaptable to the warmer and wetter climate in the future.

Keywords: climate change; film mulching; DeNitrification–DeComposition (DNDC) model; maize yield; water use efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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