Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in China

Miaoling Bu, Weiming Xi, Yu Wang and Guofeng Wang ()
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Miaoling Bu: Law School, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, 140 Wucheng Road, Xiaodian District, Taiyuan 030006, China
Weiming Xi: Law School, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, 140 Wucheng Road, Xiaodian District, Taiyuan 030006, China
Yu Wang: Business School, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China
Guofeng Wang: Institute of Platform Economics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China

Agriculture, 2024, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-17

Abstract: Agricultural land in China represents a major source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions, and as population growth and technological advancements drive agricultural intensification, these emissions are projected to increase. A thorough understanding of historical trends and future dynamics of these emissions is critical for formulating effective mitigation strategies and advancing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. This study quantifies N 2 O emissions across 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021, employing the IPCC coefficient method alongside China’s provincial greenhouse gas inventory guidelines. The spatiotemporal evolution of emission intensities was examined, with the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model employed to assess the influence of population, technological development, economic growth, and energy structure. The findings confirm that agricultural land remains the primary source of N 2 O emissions, with significantly higher levels observed in eastern coastal regions compared to western inland areas. Implementing targeted mitigation strategies, such as enhanced agricultural- and manure-management practices and region-specific interventions, is imperative to effectively curb the rising emission trends.

Keywords: nitrous oxide from agricultural sources; IPCC coefficient method; spatiotemporal evolution; scenario forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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