Evaluating the Path to the European Commission’s Organic Agriculture Goal: A Multivariate Analysis of Changes in EU Countries (2004–2021) and Socio-Economic Relationships

Stefan Krajewski, Jan Žukovskis, Dariusz Gozdowski, Marek Cieśliński and Elżbieta Wójcik-Gront ()
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Stefan Krajewski: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Wspólna 30, 00-930 Warsaw, Poland
Jan Žukovskis: Department of Business and Rural Development Management, Vytautas Magnus University, 53361 Kaunas, Lithuania
Dariusz Gozdowski: Department of Biometry, Institute of Agriculture, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland
Marek Cieśliński: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Wspólna 30, 00-930 Warsaw, Poland
Elżbieta Wójcik-Gront: Department of Biometry, Institute of Agriculture, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland

Agriculture, 2024, vol. 14, issue 3, 1-18

Abstract: This study comprehensively analyzed the dynamic landscape of organic farming in the European Union (EU) from 2004 to 2021, investigating the shifts in dedicated agricultural areas influenced by evolving preferences and the priorities of farmers and consumers. Examining the impact of socio-economic factors, including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the human development index (HDI), and human population density, this study established multivariate relationships through country-level analyses based on correlations, principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and panel analysis. Despite a universal increase in the organic agriculture areas across all the EU countries during the study period, the production levels exhibited negative correlations with the human population density, GDP per capita, and HDI. Notably, the Baltic countries and Austria led in organic farming production, while Malta, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, and Luxemburg formed a distinct group in the cluster analysis with less intensive organic agriculture per capita. These insights are crucial for supporting the resilience and sustainability of organic farming as it continues to evolve. Predictions of organic agriculture share for 2030 based on trends evaluated using linear regression in the years 2004–2021 estimated about 12% of utilized agricultural area, which was much lower than the target share of the European Commission at 25%. Predictions based on linear regression showed that achieving the European Green Deal target of a 25% share of organic agriculture in unlikely in most EU countries by 2030. The target is only highly probable to be obtained in Austria, Estonia, and Sweden. The EU countries varied significantly across various indices characterizing organic agriculture, including organic agriculture area share. It should be noted that the study was conducted on the data obtained prior to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, which could potentially alter the previous trends in the development of organic agriculture in the EU.

Keywords: Common Agricultural Policy (CAP); Green Deal; multivariate analysis; long-term changes; organic agriculture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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