Climate Change Risks for the Mediterranean Agri-Food Sector: The Case of Greece

Elena Georgopoulou (), Nikos Gakis, Dimitris Kapetanakis, Dimitris Voloudakis, Maria Markaki, Yannis Sarafidis, Dimitris P. Lalas, George P. Laliotis, Konstantina Akamati, Iosif Bizelis, Markos Daskalakis, Sevastianos Mirasgedis and Iordanis Tzamtzis
Additional contact information
Elena Georgopoulou: Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, Greece
Nikos Gakis: FACE3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, GR-11471 Athens, Greece
Dimitris Kapetanakis: FACE3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, GR-11471 Athens, Greece
Dimitris Voloudakis: RethinkAg S.P., Eirinis 81, Agia Paraskevi, GR-15341 Attiki, Greece
Maria Markaki: Department of Management Science & Technology, Hellenic Mediterranean University, P.O. Box 128, GR-72100 Agios Nikolaos Crete, Greece
Yannis Sarafidis: Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, Greece
Dimitris P. Lalas: FACE3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, GR-11471 Athens, Greece
George P. Laliotis: Laboratory of Animal Breeding & Husbandry, Department of Animal Science, School of Animal Sciences, Agricultural University of Athens, 75, Iera Odos Str., GR-11855 Athens, Greece
Konstantina Akamati: Laboratory of Animal Breeding & Husbandry, Department of Animal Science, School of Animal Sciences, Agricultural University of Athens, 75, Iera Odos Str., GR-11855 Athens, Greece
Iosif Bizelis: Laboratory of Animal Breeding & Husbandry, Department of Animal Science, School of Animal Sciences, Agricultural University of Athens, 75, Iera Odos Str., GR-11855 Athens, Greece
Markos Daskalakis: RethinkAg S.P., Eirinis 81, Agia Paraskevi, GR-15341 Attiki, Greece
Sevastianos Mirasgedis: Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, Greece
Iordanis Tzamtzis: Accel Ltd., Chrisostomou Smirnis 27, Imittos, GR-17237 Athens, Greece

Agriculture, 2024, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-31

Abstract: The study assesses the direct effects of climate change by 2060, including extreme events, on the productivity of regional crop farming and livestock in Greece, and the broader socio-economic effects on the agri-food and other sectors. Different approaches (i.e., agronomic models, statistical regression models, and equations linking thermal stress to livestock output) were combined to estimate the effects on productivity from changes in the average values of climatic parameters, and subsequently the direct economic effects from this long-term climate change. Recorded damages from extreme events together with climatic thresholds per event and crop were combined to estimate the direct economic effects of these extremes. The broader socio-economic effects were then estimated through input–output analysis. Under average levels of future extreme events, the total direct economic losses for Greek agriculture due to climate change will be significant, from EUR 437 million/year to EUR 1 billion/year. These losses approximately double when indirect effects on other sectors using agricultural products as inputs (e.g., food and beverage, hotels, and restaurants) are considered, and escalate further under a tenfold impact of extreme events. Losses in the GDP and employment are moderate at the national level, but significant in regions where the contribution of agriculture is high.

Keywords: agriculture; climate change; impacts; risks; agri-food sector; socio-economic; Mediterranean; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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