Agroclimatic Indicator Analysis Under Climate Change Conditions to Predict the Climatic Suitability for Wheat Production in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Wondimeneh Leul Demissew (), Tadesse Terefe Zeleke, Kassahun Ture, Dejene K. Mengistu and Meaza Abera Fufa
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Wondimeneh Leul Demissew: Center for Environmental Science, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia
Tadesse Terefe Zeleke: Center for Environmental Science, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia
Kassahun Ture: Center for Environmental Science, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia
Dejene K. Mengistu: Biodiversity for Food and Agriculture, Biodiversity International, ILRI Campus, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
Meaza Abera Fufa: Center for Environmental Science, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia

Agriculture, 2025, vol. 15, issue 5, 1-19

Abstract: Agricultural productivity is significantly influenced by climate-related factors. Understanding the impacts of climate change on agroclimatic conditions is critical for ensuring sustainable agricultural practices. This study investigates how key agroclimatic variables—temperature, moisture conditions, and length of the growing season (LGS)—influence wheat suitability in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), Ethiopia. The Global Agroecological Zones (GAEZ) methodology was employed to assess agroclimatic suitability, integrating climate projections from Climate Models Intercomparison Project v6 (CMIP6) under shared socioeconomic pathway (ssp370 and ssp585) scenarios. The CMIP6 data provided downscaled projections for temperature and precipitation, while the GAEZ framework translated these climatic inputs into agroclimatic indicators, enabling spatially explicit analyses of land suitability. Projections indicate significant warming, with mean annual temperatures expected to rise between 1.13 °C and 4.85 °C by the end of the century. Precipitation levels are anticipated to increase overall, although spatial variability may challenge moisture availability in some regions. The LGS is projected to extend, particularly in the southern and southeastern UBNB, enhancing agricultural potential in these areas. However, wheat suitability faces considerable declines; under ssp585, the highly suitable area is expected to drop from 24.21% to 13.31% by the 2080s due to thermal and moisture stress. This study highlights the intricate relationship between agroclimatic variables and agricultural productivity. Integrating GAEZ and CMIP6 projections provides quantified insights into the impacts of climate change on wheat suitability. These findings offer a foundation for developing adaptive strategies to safeguard food security and optimize land use in vulnerable regions.

Keywords: thermal regime; moisture index; growing season length; suitability class; GAEZ; climate change; suitability; wheat crop (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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