Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example

H.O. Stekler (hstekler@gwu.edu) and Kazuta Sakamoto
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H.O. Stekler: Department of Economics George Washington UniversityAuthor-Name: Kazuta Sakamoto
Kazuta Sakamoto: Department of Economics George WaExponential smoothing and non-negative datashington UniversityAuthor-Name: Kazuta Sakamoto

No 2008-005, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: Forecasts for the current year that are made sometime during the current year are not true annual forecasts because they include already known information for the early part of the year. The current methodology that evaluates these ¡°forecasts¡± does not take into account the known information. This paper presents a methodology for calculating an implicit forecast for the latter part of a year conditional on the known information. We then apply the procedure to Japanese forecasts for 1988-2003 and analyze some of the characteristics of those predictions.Length: 24 pages

Keywords: Forecasting; Japanese forecasts; evaluation techniques (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-for and nep-mac
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Journal Article: Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example (2010)
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