Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates

Tara Sinclair and Herman Stekler

No 2011-001, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: In this paper we examine the quality of the initial estimates of headline GDP and 10 major components of both real and nominal U.S. GDP. We ask a number of questions about various characteristics of the differences between the initial estimates available one month after the end of the quarter to the estimates available three months after the end of the quarter. Do the first estimates have the same directional signs as the later numbers? Are the original numbers unbiased estimates of the later figures? Are any observed biases related to the state of the economy? Finally, we determine whether there is a significant difference between the vector of the 30 day estimates of the 10 major components and the vector of the 90 day estimates of the same components. We conclude that, despite the existence of some bias, under most circumstances, an analyst could use the early data to obtain a realistic picture of what had happened in the economy in the previous quarter.

Keywords: Flash Estimates; Data Revisions; GDP Components; Statistical Tests; Business Cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C82 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2011-02, Revised 2011-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2011-001.pdf Second version, 2011 (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates (2013)
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