WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS?

Jeff Messina (), Tara Sinclair and Herman Stekler
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Jeff Messina: The George Washington University

No 2014-003, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: Although there have been many evaluations of the Fed Greenbook forecasts, we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts in the context of fixed event predictions to determine how new information is incorporated in the forecasting process. This analysis permits us to determine whether there was an underutilization of information. There is no evidence of forecast smoothing, but rather that the revisions were sometimes in the wrong direction.

Keywords: Federal Reserve; Forecast Evaluation; Forecast Revisions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 E2 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2014-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2014-003.pdf First version, 2014 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts? (2015)
Working Paper: What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts? (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2014-003

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