National economic policy simulations with global interdependencies: a sensitivity analysis for Germany

Bernd Meyer, Christian Lutz, Peter Schnur and Gerd Zika ()

No 200612, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models in general are done using a stand alone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feed back to the export values and import prices of the particular country. The paper at hand presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a stand alone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany's export values and import prices. The results are striking: The effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the stand alone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Außenhandelsentwicklung; Außenhandelspolitik; Auswirkungen; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Export; Exportquote; Globalisierung; Importquote; Modell; Ökonometrie; Preisniveau; volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung; Welthandel; Wirtschaftspolitik (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 E17 E27 E37 F17 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2006
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-int
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Published in/as: Economic Systems Research, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2007), S. 37-55, doi:10.1080/09535310601164765

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200612

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