Labour market forecasting: is disaggregation useful?

Enzo Weber and Gerd Zika ()

No 201314, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "Using the example of short-term forecasts for German employment figures, the article at hand examines the question whether the use of disaggregated information increases the forecast accuracy of the aggregate. For this purpose, the out-of-sample forecasts for the aggregated employment forecast are compared to and contrasted with forecasts based on a vector-autoregressive model, which includes not only the aggregate but also the numbers of gainfully employed people at the industry level. The Clark/West test is used in the model comparison. It becomes evident that disaggregation significantly improves the employment forecast. Moreover, fluctuation- window tests help identify the phases during which disaggregation increases forecast accuracy to the strongest extent." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Beschäftigtenzahl; Methode; Prognostik; Arbeitsmarktprognose (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 J23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-lab, nep-lam, nep-lma, nep-ltv and nep-neu
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Published in/as: Applied Economics 48 (2016), 23, 2183-2198, doi:10.1080/00036846.2015.1117044

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201314

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