Demography and unemployment in East Germany: how close are the ties?
Michaela Fuchs and
Antje Weyh
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Antje Weyh: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
No 201426, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]
Abstract:
"We analyze the relation between population aging and the decline of unemployment in East Germany for the years from 1996 to 2012. To this we scrutinize both a direct and an indirect effect of aging on unemployment. The direct effect includes a decomposition of the East German unemployment rate into three components considering changes in the workforce's age structure, labor market participation, and age-specific unemployment rates. Results show that changes in the age structure of the workforce counteracted unemployment decline since 2005. Spatial panel regressions on the small-scale regional level, however, point towards an indirect effect of aging on unemployment that works through the increasing competition for labor. Overall results show that the declining unemployment rate in East Germany is indeed affected by aging as evidenced by a declining youth share and an increasing old-age share. This indicates that a reversed cohort crowding effect has taken place." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Keywords: Ostdeutschland; Auswirkungen; Beschäftigungseffekte; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; demografischer Wandel; Erwerbsbevölkerung; Arbeitslosigkeitsentwicklung; Altersstruktur; Arbeitslosenquote; 1996-2012 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 J11 J64 O18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eur, nep-lab and nep-ure
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201426
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