Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?

Robert Lehmann and Antje Weyh
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Antje Weyh: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany

No 201530, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2014. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-ofsample exercises, we find that for most of the European states considered, the survey-based indicator model outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Belgien; Bulgarien; Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Estland; Europa; Finnland; Frankreich; Großbritannien; Italien; Niederlande; Österreich; Portugal; Schweden; Slowakei; Tschechische Republik; Ungarn; Befragung; Datengewinnung; Erwartung; Meinungsforschung; Prognosegenauigkeit; Prognoseverfahren; Arbeitsmarktforschung; Arbeitsmarktindikatoren; Arbeitsmarktprognose; Arbeitsmarktrisiko; Arbeitsplatzsicherheit; 1998-2014 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 J00 J49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-lab and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in/as: OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Research, (2016), o. Sz., doi:10.1007/s41549-016-0002-5

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https://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2015/dp3015.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful? (2016)
Working Paper: Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful? (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201530

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