Electromobility 2035: Economic and labour market effects through the electrification of powertrains in passenger cars

Anke Mönnig, Christian Schneemann, Enzo Weber, Gerd Zika and Robert Helmrich
Additional contact information
Anke Mönnig: GWS
Christian Schneemann: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Gerd Zika: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Robert Helmrich: BIBB

No 201908, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of the electrification of powertrains in passenger cars (e-mobility). The automotive industry is one of the leading sectors in Germany and the country is one of the world's leading car producers. Therefore the economic impact could be extensive. Using the scenario technique, a number of assumptions have been made and integrated into the QINFORGE analytical tool. At the beginning of the scenario, the underlying assumptions have a positive effect on the economic development. However, in the long run they lead to a lower GDP and level of employment. The change in technology will lead to 114,000 job cuts by the end of 2035. The economy as a whole will lose nearly 20 billion euros (0.6 % of the GDP). In the scenario, we assumed a share of only 23 percent of electric cars as compared to all new registered cars in 2035. The electrification of powertrains will have negative effects especially on skilled workers. The demand for specialist and expert activities will also decrease with a time delay. A much higher market penetration could lead to stronger economic effects. Furthermore, a higher market share of domestically produced cars and traction batteries could generate more positive economic effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Elektromobilität; Auswirkungen; Automobilindustrie; Beschäftigungseffekte; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Elektronik; Elektrotechnik; Fachkräfte; Infrastrukturkosten; Kraftfahrzeug; Produktinnovation; Produktivitätseffekte; Qualifikationsanforderungen; BIBB/IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen; Szenario; Arbeitsmarktprognose; Wirtschaftswachstum; Zulieferer; 1994-2035 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 E23 E24 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2019-04-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-lab, nep-mac and nep-tre
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201908

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