Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked

Joannes Mongardini and Aneta Radzikowski

No 2020/070, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Global smartphone sales may have peaked. After reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016, global smartphone sales have since declined, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019 and suggesting that the global market may now be saturated. This paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales, which shows that sales are likely to decline further. As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may also be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.

Keywords: WP; iPhone; Apple; iPhone sale; trade; global supply chains; global trade; tech cycle; smartphone sale; ICT-enabled services; services export; PC sales; ICT services; Apple cash; Mobile internet; Service exports; Stocks; Exports; Global; merchandise export; Asia and Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20
Date: 2020-05-29
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-int and nep-pay
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